Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries
['van Vuuren, Detlef P.', 'van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar', 'van Zeist, Willem-Jan']; Nature; 2025-05-14
『Abstract』The pressures humanity has been placing on the environment have put Earth’s stability at risk. The planetary boundaries framework serves as a method to define a ‘safe operating space for humanity’ and has so far been applied mostly to highlight the currently prevailing unsustainable environmental conditions. The ability to evaluate trends over time, however, can help us explore the consequences of alternative policy decisions and identify pathways for living within planetary boundaries . Here we use the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment to project control variables for eight out of nine planetary boundaries under alternative scenarios to 2050, both with and without strong environmental policy measures. The results show that, with current trends and policies, the situation is projected to worsen to 2050 for all planetary boundaries, except for ozone depletion. Targeted interventions, such as implementing the Paris climate agreement, a shift to a healthier diet, improved food, and water- and nutrient-use efficiency, can effectively reduce the degree of transgression of the planetary boundaries, steering humanity towards a more sustainable trajectory (that is, if they can be implemented based on social and institutional feasibility considerations). However, even in this scenario, several planetary boundaries, including climate change, biogeochemical flows and biodiversity, will remain transgressed in 2050, partly as result of inertia. This means that more-effective policy measures will be needed to ensure we are living well within the planetary boundaries.
『摘要』
人类给环境带来的压力已使地球稳定性面临风险。行星边界框架作为一种界定“人类安全操作空间”的方法,迄今为止主要用于强调当前普遍存在的不可持续的环境状况。然而,评估长期趋势的能力可以帮助我们探索不同政策决策的后果,并找到在行星边界内生活的途径。在这里,我们使用全球环境综合评估模型,根据有无强有力的环境政策措施这两种不同的情景,预测了到2050年九个行星边界中有八个的控制变量。结果表明,按照目前的趋势和政策,预计到2050年,除臭氧消耗外,所有行星边界的情况都将恶化。有针对性的干预措施,如实施《巴黎气候协定》、转向更健康的饮食、提高食物、水和营养素的利用效率,可以有效降低越界程度,引导人类走向更可持续的发展道路(当然,这是在考虑到社会和制度可行性的基础上能够实施的前提下)。然而,即使在这种情况下,到2050年,包括气候变化、生物地球化学流动和生物多样性在内的几个行星边界仍将因部分惯性作用而被越界。这意味着将需要更有效的政策措施来确保我们的生活严格限制在行星边界内。
『总结』
人类活动给地球环境带来巨大压力,评估长期趋势对探索可持续政策、确保生活在行星边界内至关重要,需实施更有效政策措施应对。
『闲叙』